Saturday, October 22, 2016

A new ice age?

I've posted before about solar activity correlating better to global temperature than CO2 levels.  For the really brief version, graphs showing this correlation are here and here.  I'll embed them below in case they ever go away.

I'm going to post an article which you can take with a grain of salt, because it's a tabloid, but sometimes that's the only place an opposing viewpoint can get published.  That's a sad commentary on the influence of global warming true believers, but it's the truth. 

Earth faces another ICE AGE within 15 YEARS as Russian scientists discover Sun 'cooling'
Experts say that solar activity as low as it currently is has not been seen since the mini-ice age that took place between 1645 and 1715 – a period known as the Maunder Minimum where the entire Thames froze over.

A new model has allowed experts to predict solar activity with more accuracy than ever before and it suggests that magnetic activity will fall by 60 per cent between 2030 and 2040.

The model looks at the Sun’s ’11-year heartbeat’ – the period it takes for magnetic activity to fluctuate. This cycle was first discovered some 173 years ago.

However, a mathematician has established a more up-to-date model that can forecast what the solar cycles will look like based upon dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun.

Dynamo effects are a geophysical theory that dictate how the movement of the Earth’s outer core conducts materials like liquid iron across the magnetic field to create an electric current – this also influences fluid motion beneath Earth’s surface to create two magnetic fields along the axis of the Earth’s rotation.

Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University applied this theory to the Sun, and was able to predict the affects of solar cycles with 97 per cent accuracy.
Remember, in science, we discard models that don't accurately predict reality in favor of those that do.  We know that the current global warming models are wrong because they don't accurately predict observed reality:  95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

Of course, the true believers disagree.  Full version here:  Are we heading into a new Ice Age?

Short version (basic): 
The warming effect from more CO2 greatly outstrips the influence from changes in the Earth's orbit or solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.
 More involved:
Just a few centuries ago, the planet experienced a mild ice age, quaintly dubbed the Little Ice Age. Part of the Little Ice Age coincided with a period of low solar activity termed the Maunder Minimum (named after astronomer Edward Maunder). It's believed that a combination of lower solar output and high volcanic activity were major contributors (Free 1999, Crowley 2001), with changes in ocean circulation also having an effect on European temperatures (Mann 2002).

Could we be heading into another Maunder Minimum? Solar activity is currently showing a long-term cooling trend. 2009 saw solar output at its lowest level in over a century. However, predicting future solar activity is problematic. The transition from a period of 'grand maxima' (the situation in the latter 20th century) to a 'grand minima' (Maunder Minimum conditions) is a chaotic process and difficult to predict (Usoskin 2007).

Let's say for the sake of argument that the sun does enter another Maunder Minimum over the 21st century. What effect would this have on Earth's climate? Simulations of the climate response if the sun did fall to Maunder Minimum levels find that the decrease in temperature from the sun is minimal compared to the warming from man-made greenhouse gases (Feulner 2010). Cooling from the lowered solar output is estimated at around 0.1°C (with a maximum possible value of 0.3°C) while the greenhouse gas warming will be around 3.7°C to 4.5°C, depending on how much CO2 we emit throughout the 21st century (more on this study...).
Oops.  We're citing Mann.  Maybe not the best way to go*.  I post this for a simple reason:  In the next decade or so, we're going to know who's right.  It's going to become obvious.  Either the global warming true believers will be proved right despite their models being consistently wrong, or we'll see real warming.  While the true believers are willing to massage data to pretend things like the Medieval Warming Period and the more recent warming hiatus didn't happen, eventually there's just going to be too much data to deny.  When that time comes, I want these theories preserved so that they can be remembered like the last really big Scientific/Political Progressive theory is:  complete bunk.  That theory was eugenics, a testament to what happens when you mix political agenda with scientific theory.

If you want more hard science and less opinion on this issue, have a look at Watts Up With That.  

*Why is citing Mann a bad idea?  He's a true believer, willing to lie about data to support his religious belief in anthropogenic global warming.  More here.   Some critical details below, since the Telegraph does not keep its articles online forever:
Dr Jones is also a key part of the closely knit group of American and British scientists responsible for promoting that picture of world temperatures conveyed by Michael Mann's "hockey stick" graph which 10 years ago turned climate history on its head by showing that, after 1,000 years of decline, global temperatures have recently shot up to their highest level in recorded history.
Given star billing by the IPCC, not least for the way it appeared to eliminate the long-accepted Mediaeval Warm Period when temperatures were higher they are today, the graph became the central icon of the entire man-made global warming movement.
Since 2003, however, when the statistical methods used to create the "hockey stick" were first exposed as fundamentally flawed by an expert Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre , an increasingly heated battle has been raging between Mann's supporters, calling themselves "the Hockey Team", and McIntyre and his own allies, as they have ever more devastatingly called into question the entire statistical basis on which the IPCC and CRU construct their case.

The senders and recipients of the leaked CRU emails constitute a cast list of the IPCC's scientific elite, including not just the "Hockey Team", such as Dr Mann himself, Dr Jones and his CRU colleague Keith Briffa, but Ben Santer, responsible for a highly controversial rewriting of key passages in the IPCC's 1995 report; Kevin Trenberth, who similarly controversially pushed the IPCC into scaremongering over hurricane activity; and Gavin Schmidt, right-hand man to Al Gore's ally Dr James Hansen, whose own GISS record of surface temperature data is second in importance only to that of the CRU itself.

There are three threads in particular in the leaked documents which have sent a shock wave through informed observers across the world. Perhaps the most obvious, as lucidly put together by Willis Eschenbach (see McIntyre's blog Climate Audit and Anthony Watt's blog Watts Up With That ), is the highly disturbing series of emails which show how Dr Jones and his colleagues have for years been discussing the devious tactics whereby they could avoid releasing their data to outsiders under freedom of information laws.

They have come up with every possible excuse for concealing the background data on which their findings and temperature records were based.

This in itself has become a major scandal, not least Dr Jones's refusal to release the basic data from which the CRU derives its hugely influential temperature record, which culminated last summer in his startling claim that much of the data from all over the world had simply got "lost". Most incriminating of all are the emails in which scientists are advised to delete large chunks of data, which, when this is done after receipt of a freedom of information request, is a criminal offence.

But the question which inevitably arises from this systematic refusal to release their data is – what is it that these scientists seem so anxious to hide? The second and most shocking revelation of the leaked documents is how they show the scientists trying to manipulate data through their tortuous computer programmes, always to point in only the one desired direction – to lower past temperatures and to "adjust" recent temperatures upwards, in order to convey the impression of an accelerated warming. This comes up so often (not least in the documents relating to computer data in the Harry Read Me file) that it becomes the most disturbing single element of the entire story. This is what Mr McIntyre caught Dr Hansen doing with his GISS temperature record last year (after which Hansen was forced to revise his record), and two further shocking examples have now come to light from Australia and New Zealand.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

It's an interesting point

There are two important points to make before sharing this video:

1.  I never thought we could trust Hillary Clinton with the 2nd Amendment.  Did she make promises she wouldn't infringe on it?  Would anyone believe that?

2.  I do not support Trump.  He's a horrible candidate.  I don't trust his promises, either. 

Those said, here's a video of really aggravating behavior by Clinton supporters:

I'm completely fine with informed disagreement.  I'm not okay with trying to silence others, especially when it involves trespassing and theft. 

If you want to change someone's mind, try being their friend and reasoning with them.  Doesn't the Left always tell us how important it is for everyone to have a voice?  Then why steal someone else's voice?  It would appear the Left only believes you have rights if you agree with them, and that is deeply troubling, because it's an attitude that extends beyond the 1st or 2nd Amendments.  It's the sort of attitude that leads to reeducation camps.

California Voting Guide for the 2016 General Election

I have a friend who every election cycle puts out a voting guide.  He does extensive research and actually works in the California legislature.  I don't agree with him on everything, but he navigates the more confusing issues well.  Have a look before you vote:
Legislative Analysts’ Office (non-partisan analysis):

Here you go. The recommendations should follow your ballot card (in order of appearance).

Proposition 51 – $9 Billion Education Bond for New and Retrofit Capital Projects – NO
While there is no doubt that our schools need more money for retrofits, this is a statewide measure that is unaffordable. Governor Brown and the Sacramento Bee are opposed to this measure. The Department of Finance notes that this will average $500 million per year in principal and interest payments out of the General Fund, displacing other priorities. If local residents want a local school bond, they can pass something that they are accountable for and for which they can maintain oversight.    

Proposition 52 – California Medi-Cal Hospital Reimbursement Initiative – YES
This extends a fee that already exists to provide for matching federal funds. Should the legislature want to change this, they can with a 2/3 vote.

Proposition 53 – Voter Approval for State Revenue Bonds above $2 billion – YES
If we are doing large projects that have a statewide benefit, then we usually pursue general obligation bonds which already require voter approval. However, over the last several years, untenable projects that would not likely get voter approvals go the direction of the lease-revenue bonds to avoid this problem. This bill is necessary to avoid good money going after the beleaguered high-speed rail train (of which I’m totally opposed) and possibly the Delta water tunnels project (of which I’m agnostic) without any voter oversight. If the voters think that money should go to these projects, then they will vote for them. And don’t be fooled that this would require voter approval on bonds for emergency purposes because I’ve found no examples where a large lease bond was ever used for this reason.

Proposition 54 – Public Display of Legislative Bills – YES, YES, YES
If you want more sunlight and access to legislative process and hearings, vote for this measure. If you are tired of bills being gutted and amended in back rooms in the dark of night when the public isn’t possibly paying attention or involved, then vote for this. This proposition requires bills be in print for 72 hours before being voted on. It also gives open access to recordings of all public hearings.

Proposition 55 – Extension of Proposition 30 Income Tax Increase – NO
Proposition 30 tax was supposed to be a "temporary" income tax on wealthy to expire by 2018. Instead, as revealed in several recent articles in the Los Angeles TimesCapital Public RadioBloombergReuters and the New York Times, the unfunded liabilities for public pensions and retiree healthcare costs have skyrocketed and this money is intended to be expended for 12 years to pay for untenable pension costs. California had the largest state budget in the nation’s history totaling over a QUARTER OF A TRILLION DOLLARS this year. The legislature shows no signs of constraint and will keep writing checks they can’t cash unless they are required to confront their reckless spending habits head-on.
Proposition 56 – Healthcare, Research & Prevention Tobacco Tax – NO
This will place an additional $2 tax increase on a pack of cigarettes, creating a black market on tobacco products. While it is commendable to address the problem of smoking and nicotine addiction, these kinds of projects only raise money for special interests and nothing of value ever comes of it.

Proposition 57 – Parole of Non-Violent Criminals & Juvenile Criminal Proceedings – NO
This was another end-around of the legislature by Governor Brown that will only exacerbate AB 109 (prison realignment to the local jails) & Proposition 47 (changing definitions of crimes to reduce incarceration). Brown could have produced a bipartisan measure with lawmakers, but he finagled this one on the ballot after overcoming several legitimate challenges in court as he changed the language of the proposition. This will shift more costs to local governments and increase homelessness.

Proposition 58 – Non-English Language Education – NO
Amends and repeals Prop. 227 while trying to get around a "total immersion" program that is working. While it is great to encourage multilingual opportunities, English needs to be the official language of the state/nation. That is, if you want a cohesive and functioning society, common language is necessary.

Proposition 59 – Overturn of Citizens United Act – Advisory Question – NO
This is just an advisory question that has no effect on the federal law. It is an attack on First Amendment rights trying to silence effective voices. If I were to change the political disclosure laws, I think that donations to a candidate should be unlimited as long as there is full and immediate disclosure of those donors and recipients. What part of “Congress shall make NO law” don’t people understand in the First Amendment? Also, this would silence newspapers and their endorsement if Congress were to take action. This is a huge waste of time. Why bother the electorate with a meaningless measure? 

Proposition 60 – Condoms Required for Performers in Adult Films – NO
I don’t know what to say about this that won’t be construed inappropriately, but if we’re more worried about the use of condoms in making pornography than the pornography itself, we’re in a world of hurt.

Proposition 61 – State Prescription Drug Purchases. Pricing Standards – NO
Like the old adage that is proving itself with the failure of Obamacare, “You think that health care is expensive now, wait until it’s free,” price controls of prescriptions only make medicine more expensive.            

Proposition 62 – Death Penalty Repeal – NO
I support the death penalty. It works as a deterrent and punishment when used speedily and not sabotaged by the legislature and other capital punishment opponents. I think that our death penalty process needs reforms, but abolishing it does not fix anything and only further aggrieves the families of victims promised justice. On a related note, most of the people supporting this proposition also support infanticide and physician assisted suicide. They would rather kill the innocent than those that are truly guilty of the most heinous crimes.
Proposition 63 –Large Capacity Ammunition Magazine Ban – NO
I support the right to keep and bear arms. The legislature intentionally did not act on this issue as to give something for the Lt. Governor to run on as he seeks to become Governor to boost his liberal/progressive credentials. If enacted, this will not lead to less violence.          

Proposition 64 – Marijuana Legalization – NO
While I am generally fine with the idea of legalizing drugs and allowing adults to make dumb decisions – the prohibition of alcohol didn’t work – this is a federal issue and the Congress should make this decision. Despite the vote, marijuana will still be illegal under federal law. Besides the fact that legalization of marijuana is having a negative impact on my former home of Colorado (call your friends there and ask how they like it), I don’t think that concentrating more marijuana consumption in California under the color of being legal is going to benefit the state as a whole. 

I'm going to disagree with my friend here.  Vote YES.  I'm libertarian, and he's not.   I'm not a fan of bans in general.  Prohibition had an impact on alcohol consumption, but ultimately wasn't worth the blood spilled or the money spent to impose it.  It was repealed.  It's time to do the same with the ban on marijuana.  I don't need the government to tell me not to drink alcohol.  I've already made that decision.  Very few people derive medical benefits from the use of marijuana, but I think education is a better solution than a ban, much like with alcohol and cigarettes.  

"South Park" (of all sources) provided one of the truest explanations of marijuana use I've read (that's right, I didn't watch the show):  "Well, Stan, the truth is marijuana probably isn't gonna make you kill people, and it most likely isn't gonna fund terrorism, but… well, son, pot makes you feel fine with being bored. And it's when you're bored that you should be learning some new skill or discovering some new science or being creative. If you smoke pot you may grow up to find out that you aren't good at anything."  

In addition, marijuana use most probably lowers your IQ and hurts your memory.  Of course, there are also studies that show it does no harm.  We all probably know people who have used pot, or do use it regularly.  In my experience, regular use at the very least suppresses motivation, but does seem to have a lasting effect on cognition.  Don't use it.  That said, the ban is still pointless.
Proposition 65 – Redirecting Mandated Carry-Out Bag Fee – YES
I wrote a lengthy study on plastic bags while working at a think tank a few years back and after much research and analysis, we came to the conclusion that banning plastic bags was worse for the environment, using up other precious resources as a poorer substitute. A better pathway would be to enforce littering laws. But since the legislature passed this bill after several attempts under much duress and pressure from the environmental lobby, rather than having the fees collected for buying plastic bags at the store go to the stores, it should go to environmental programs that would clean up the litter. 
I sure do love this.  Plastic bag bans stink.  My county voluntarily imposed one and it's one of the least convenient things ever.  The argument for doing it is that it helps the environment, but the legislation at the state level was dead in the water until the grocery bagger union got involved.  The unions wanted the money, and in many places, they're getting it.  This proposition is a big, "Screw you," to the unions and it redirects those collected fees to what people actually want done with it.  Also, I love screwing over the unions that rule California politics.  I don't think big money and influence should control politics, and I don't care if it's unions like in California or corporations as in many places.  The voice of the people should govern.  So I'm for anything that takes money out of the pockets of big unions.     
Proposition 66 – Death Penalty Reform – YES
I support the death penalty, but think that there should be some reforms. This proposition moves public policy in the right direction.
Proposition 67 – Referendum on Ban of Single Use Plastic Bags – NO
As stated above, I support the use of plastic grocery bags as stated under the explanation in Proposition 65. Here is the lengthy study on plastic bags I did a few years back.

United States Senator: Loretta Sanchez – Since there is no other choice in this race, I prefer the moderate Democrat, who could win if Republicans and Independents vote for her over a very progressive Democrat in Kamala Harris. Harris is not afraid of taking us back to the Stone Age with her climate activism and she’s proud of vilifying YOU and those who stand up for religious freedoms.
Additional voting options in my area (use them to vote on similar things in your area):

Sacramento County Measure B – More Sales Tax to fund Transportation – NO  Never vote for more tax.  The county actually has money to do this and has been doing it.  More sales tax won't help and will likely end up misused.

Sacramento County Measure P – Bonds to fix Schools – NO  Great googly moogly no.  Bonds are high interest rate loans.  They're the worst way to fund anything.  Funding education with bonds is much like using your highest interest rate credit card to buy groceries and pay your electricity bill.  Schools need improving.  This is the wrong way to do it.


President and Vice President – In California, your individual vote here literally does not matter at all.  The poll that ranks Hillary Clinton lowest has her up by 16 points.  There is nothing you could do on facebook or a blog or word of mouth that would influence enough California voters to change the inevitable result of all of California's electoral votes going to the Democrat candidate.  The Democrat party could actually nominate Joseph Stalin and all of California's electoral votes would go to Joseph Stalin.  We have a preponderance of voters who will vote party line no matter what.  For those of us who find our top two choices disgusting and unconscionable, this is liberating.  Go vote your conscience.  You will not affect the outcome of the election for the office of president.

United States Representative, Congressional District 7 - Scott R. Jones is my choice.  I interacted with him before he was Sheriff, and overall I really like him.  He made CCW easier in Sacramento county, so that puts him way ahead of his opponent (the incumbent Ami Bera) in supporting individual freedom.  When given a choice in candidates, I will always vote for one that supports individual liberty over nanny big government.

Now get out there and vote your conscience.  Unless you're ill-informed and voting party line, then please stay home and don't vote.  Much like Mike Rowe, I don't think everyone should vote.  Take time to read his post, because it's pretty great.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Why renewable energy can't supply all our power needs

Australia had a massive power outage that's a cautionary tale for those who'd like to get all of our energy from renewable sources. 
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s preliminary report into the recent South Australian blackout reveals that the primary reason for the total loss of power was a sudden reduction in wind power being fed into the electricity network, according to free market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs.

“The Preliminary Report makes it clear that while the weather was responsible for multiple transmission system faults, the blackout did not occur until after the sudden loss of 315 megawatts of wind output at six separate sites over a six second period,” said Director of Research Brett Hogan.

“The South Australian Government and the renewables industry can no longer credibly argue that the reasons for the fault relied solely on the weather. Images of downed pylons do not tell the whole story.” “In simple terms, the wind increased and some transmission lines went down but electricity generation continued. It was only the as-yet-unexplained reduction in wind farm output which overloaded demand on the interconnector with Victoria, causing the whole network to seize up.”

“Gas generation continued through the storm and the transmission line faults as did supply from the interconnector. Importantly, it was also the Torrens Island gas-fired Power Station that was used to re-start the electricity network later that evening.”

Source here.
Renewable energy as it's called is a variable output energy production system.  When conditions for a wind farm or solar panel ranch are favorable, they can produce really well.  Inclement weather can shut them down, however, and if too much of your power grid depends on them then your entire grid may fail.

That's why we need base load power plants that aren't variable based on the weather.  Here's a truth that would upset aging hippies:  the best, safest source of base load power is nuclear energy.  Fortunately, several companies are working on liquid fluoride or other liquid salt reactor generators.  This is likely our future whether environmentalists like it or not.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

The Armed Citizen

Zachary Rogers, 26, was working late one night at the 2151 Amendment liquor store. It was just past midnight when an armed man wearing a ski mask entered the store and forced Rogers and another store employee, Alicia Grabarczyk, 25, down a hallway toward an office where the safe was kept. With a concealed handgun in his front pocket, Rogers chose his moment of opportunity carefully. In one quick motion, Rogers pushed Grabarczyk to the floor and fired at the armed robber. He then helped Grabarczyk into the office and out of the line of fire. Although the burglar had been struck, Rogers saw him raise his firearm. Rogers fired three more rounds at the gunman which proved fatal. Neither Rogers nor Grabarczyk were harmed. (Indianapolis Star, Indianapolis, IN, 10/11/12)

While at home with his wife and daughter, a homeowner prepared to go outside to investigate a sudden power outage. His wife asked him to carry his firearm with him as a precaution. As he opened the front door to step outside, three men charged him in an attempt to gain entry. The homeowner pushed his wife aside as he fell backward and fired at the intruders. His daughter, a student in her
early 20s, hid in another room and called police. One of the three home invaders suffered multiple gunshot wounds and was listed in serious condition. The remaining two suspects managed to
escape. The homeowner and his family were not seriously injured. (Sun Sentinel, Miramar, FL, 10/2/12)

Kendra St. Clair, a 12-year-old at home alone one day during her fall break, called her mother at
work to say there was a man repeatedly ringing the doorbell and banging on the door. When no one answered the door, she said he disappeared. St. Clair's mother instructed her daughter to get
her .40-cal. Glock pistol and go into a bathroom closet. St. Clair heard him break in through the back door. As the man made his way through her home, 911 dispatchers kept St. Clair on the
phone. He was inside the home for approximately six minutes before he made his way to the bathroom where St. Clair was hiding. When she saw the door knob begin to turn, she fired the
gun. The 32-year-old intruder was taken into custody after being treated for a gunshot to the chest. (The Oklahoman, Durant, OK, 10/20/12)

George Polanin, 66, went to bed early one evening only to be awakened by noises coming from inside his home. He was upstairs and followed the sound of footsteps to the basement. When he reached the stairs, Polanin said he could see only the intruder's feet. "...I got my weapon and basically told him I had a weapon, it was loaded and I will use it," Polanin said. He then ordered the intruder to come out as he dialed 911. Polanin held the intruder at gunpoint until police arrived. (Kenosha News, Kenosha, WI, 10/17/12)

Cindy Schachter, an employee at Furnari Jewelers, was working when two men entered the store around 4 p.m. Schachter's boss, Anthony Furnari, was sitting at his desk facing the showroom. Something about the men made Schachter uneasy, so she gave her boss a quiet warning right before
they pulled clothing over their faces and jumped over the counter. Furnari quickly pulled his .38-cal. handgun from his desk and fired several rounds at one of the suspects as he came toward him. Furnari
was severely beaten as both men tried to gain control of his firearm. When Furnari fought back, the men grabbed a display of gold chains and fled. One suspect was later taken into custody after seeking
treatment for several bullet wounds. It was last reported that the second suspect was still at large. Furnari suffered a broken nose, a concussion, multiple stitches to the face and hand, and a fractured rib. Schachter was reportedly unharmed. (The Republican, Chicopee, MA,10/17/12)

Jack and Linda Dillon were roused from their sleep at approximately 2:45 a.m. when they realized some­one had just broken into their home. The intruder gained entry through an unlocked window. He allegedly entered the home with intent to steal electronics. Linda called 911 as Jack retrieved a firearm and confronted the 29-year-old intruder in their living room. Jack fired when the man lunged
at him. The intruder's wound proved fatal. (The Morning Journal, Elyria, OH 10/20/12)

Want even more stories?
Breitbart is providing 2nd Amendment stories.
The Blaze is providing 2nd Amendment stories.
Visit The Armed Citizen blog for older stories (the blog seems abandoned).

Other accounts of self-defense collected on this blog:
2nd Amendment Saves a Pregnant Woman,
2nd Amendment vs. a Serial Rapist,

Failures of Gun Control:
UK Government under reports gun violence to pretend their policies work
A great personal account:  My Transformation From Anti-Gun Feminist To Armed Feminist
Knife Control?!
Protecting Children through Gun Control?
Futility of the Gun Banning Philosophy
A Contrast to VA Tech

Thoughts on publicized shootings: Shootings early in 2009, Alabama Shootings, Finland School Shooting. Remember: The only proven method to mitigate the disaster of a rogue criminal shooter is to have more first responders, e.g. CCW permit holders lawfully armed and on scene. These criminals do not respect "gun free" zones, but simply view them as target-rich opposition-free areas in which to slaughter innocents.

CCW Holders are an especially lawful group.

Carrying a firearm is an inherently civilized act.

Right to Carry Statistics.

Does Violence Beget Violence?

Saturday, October 8, 2016

About that Arctic Sea Ice

The poor polar bear was the subject of much consternation and ecochondriac hand-wringing in past years.  Good news.  It looks like they're going to be okay, at least for a little while:  Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong

Dire predictions that the Arctic would be devoid of sea ice by September this year have proven to be unfounded after latest satellite images showed there is far more now than in 2012.
There is still less ice than in 1981, but the really scary predictions aren't materializing.  Many experts still say we're in trouble, but they're not thrilled with the more shrill alarmists:

Dr Ed Hawkins, associate professor in the Department of Meterology, at the University of Reading, said: “There has been one prominent scientist who has regularly made more dramatic, and incorrect, in my view predictions suggesting that we would by now be in ice-free conditions.

“There are very serious risks from continued climatic changes and a melting Arctic, but we do not serve the public and policy-makers well by exaggerating those risks.

“We will soon see an ice-free summer in the Arctic, but there is a real danger of ‘crying wolf’ and that does not help anyone.

“As global temperatures rise, we will see a continuing decline in Arctic sea ice extent, although this will happen somewhat erratically, rather like a ball bouncing down a bumpy hill.
So far, even the less dire predictions of the global warming believers haven't materialized.  In fact, the acolytes of warming have a dismal track record:  95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

Normally in science, if your models don't work, you design new ones that do accurately model the real world.  Otherwise, your position is faith-based, not science-based.

Good Guy With A Gun Stops SC School Shooting

Breitbart isn't perfect, especially staffers believe the boss took money from Trump to give him favorable coverage. 

One thing they do really well, though, is cover the 2nd Amendment.  Despite what he's said on the campaign trail (and of course what he's said depends on which stump speech you listened to), I have no belief that a NY native cares about self-defense rights.

So I was really happy to see this story:  Good Guy With A Gun Stops SC School Shooting
More details on the September 28 Townville Elementary Shooting have emerged, and they show that a good guy with a gun stopped the shooter in his tracks after two students and one teacher had been wounded.

The good guy was volunteer firefighter Jamie Brock, who was at a “nearby farm” when he heard reports of the shooting. Armed, he raced to the school and “confronted Jesse Osborne,” the 14-year-old accused of killing his father then going to the school and shooting two 6-year-old boys and a teacher. One of the boys–Jacob Hall–died from his wounds on Saturday.

WYFF reports that Brock reached “the elementary school moments before other officers could respond to a 911 call.” Fire Chief Billy McAdams accompanied Brock and told reporters that Brock “took the shooter down.” But McAdams did not mention that Brock had a gun. It has since been confirmed that he did.

There is no confirmation on how Brock utilized the firearm–whether he fired at Osborne, held Osborne at gunpoint, or simply had his hand on the handle of the holstered gun to show he was ready to draw if the attack did not end. Either way, Brock ended the attack.
I'll reiterate what I've said before.  The only proven way to lessen the carnage of a mass shooting is to have armed first responders show up.  In the case of a mass shooting, first responders don't have to be police.  Any good guy with a gun and some courage will work.

In these incidents, it's often not even necessary for a shot to be fired.  The coward mass shooter just needs to know there's opposition, which they generally don't count on.  Though it can't be officially confirmed, an Oregon CCW holder believes the Clackamas Town Center shooter saw him with his gun and the shooter then shot himself. 
On Dec. 17, [2012] Meli was interviewed by a KGW-Channel 8 television reporter, providing a richer account. "I'm not beating myself up for not shooting him. But I know that after he saw me, I think the last shot he fired was the one he used on himself."
 Here are 12 mass shootings stopped by good guys with guns:

12 Times Mass Shootings Were Stopped by Good Guys With Guns

Police were involved in some of these, but the police can't be everywhere at once and as a free society, we don't want them to be.  Lawful, armed citizens exercising their 2nd Amendment rights can be everywhere, and that's what makes the bad guys stop. 

This is where gun control really fails.  Since good guys are the ones who obey the law, it will never help.  Fewer good guys with guns will never solve the problem of bad guys with guns.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

The Armed Citizen

Charlie Blackmore was driving home around 4 a.m. when he spotted a woman being
assaulted along the side of the road. A man had pushed her to the ground and was
kicking her repeatedly in the head and stomach. Blackmore stopped his car and
ordered the man to stop the attack. The assailant then turned his attention to Blackmore
and began approaching him. Thanks to Wisconsin's new concealed-carry law, Blackmore
was able to draw his pistol and hold the suspect at gunpoint until police arrived. The
woman was treated for what appeared to be a broken nose and large laceration on her face.
(, West Allis, WI, 3/15/13)

Paul Ohle, 69, was at home baking around 9 a.m. when he heard more than a dozen bangs on his front door. By the time he made it to the door, a man had already forced his way inside. The man told Ohle that he needed help, so Ohle picked up his cell phone to call 911. The man grabbed the phone from Ohle and pushed him onto the sofa. He ordered Ohle to stay where he was as he tried to take his television. Ohle struggled with the man, but managed to get to the .38-cal. handgun he kept in his bedroom. Ohle fired multiple rounds killing the intruder. Ohle was later taken to an area hospital where he was treated and released. (Hickory Daily Record, Hickory, NC, 2/26/13)

Lee Heng, 63, was asleep when two suspects allegedly scaled the wall and entered Heng's second­story apartment through the bathroom window. Heng woke to the sound of his 14-year-old son screaming. Realizing his son was in danger, Heng jumped out of bed and grabbed his gun. The armed
intruders confronted Heng and a struggle ensued. Heng fired several shots which caused the men to flee. One suspect suffered fatal gunshot wounds and the second suspect was reportedly still at
large. It's believed that the suspects were attempting to rob the jewelry store Heng runs on the first floor of his home. (, Philadelphia, PA, 4/1/13)

Irene Parker, 78, and Beverly Wright, 43, were volunteers walking door­-to-door ministering and distributing religious literature just before the Easter holiday. Parker visited one home where a woman answered the door. Before Parker was able to speak to the woman, a large dog lunged forward from inside. The screen door flew open and Parker landed in the yard. Parker could do
nothing but try to protect her face as the dog tore at her flesh. Wright, who was just two doors down the street, ran toward Parker in an effort to help. Wright took a baseball bat from the dog's owner
and swung at the dog, but only caused the dog to turn its attention toward her. Wright screamed when the dog attacked. Two blocks away, Mike Harrell could hear the desperate cries for help. Harrell kept a gun in his truck, so he drove to the residence and immediately took action. Harrell fired one shot killing the dog. Parker and Wright suffered severe injuries, but after extensive surgeries both women survived the attack. (Tulsa World, Tulsa, OK, 3/24/13)

Editors Note:  I always wonder what happens to owners after this sort of attack.  It appears that in Oklahoma the owner can be held liable.  Also, "the dog's owner, who has not been identified by police, will be cited for failing to neuter the animal and not obtaining a city license, according to the Tulsa Animal Shelter."  Source.  I honestly have a problem with this.  I wouldn't own a pit bull, since they have a history of turning on children and owners, but many pit bulls are very sweet dogs.  An animal that vicious has been neglected or trained improperly by the owner, and I think more action should be taken.

A woman was at home when she noticed a vehicle she did not recognize in her driveway. A man she did not know came to her door and began knocking and ringing the door­bell. The woman grabbed her handgun for protection because the man seemed suspicious. Before she could answer the door, the man allegedly kicked it in and entered the woman's home. Upon seeing the handgun pointed in his direc­tion, the man fled. As he drove away, the woman took a photo of the vehicle with her cell phone. That photo later led to the arrest of the man who had broken into her home. (The Northwest Indiana
Times, Merrillville, IN, 3/22/13)

Phibbie Underwood, a 72-year-old woman on oxygen, was home alone when she heard the front door rattle, saw a shadow on the front porch and then heard a loud banging on the window. Underwood retrieved a gun she kept in her bedroom and returned to find a 26-year-old man who had broken the
window and gained entry to her home. Underwood ordered the man to get out of her home and leave her alone. Instead the man walked into another room.then walked back toward her. Underwood
warned the man to stop and when he didn't, she pulled the trigger. The gun misfired, so Underwood fired again and missed. The man got down on the floor to avoid being shot. Underwood held the
man there until police arrived. (Tribune Chronicle, Youngstown, OH, 3/29/13)

Want even more stories?
Breitbart is providing 2nd Amendment stories.
The Blaze is providing 2nd Amendment stories.
Visit The Armed Citizen blog for older stories (the blog seems abandoned).

Other accounts of self-defense collected on this blog:
Shopkeeper Defends Himself and Employees,
2nd Amendment Saves a Pregnant Woman,
Armed Student Saves 10 People,
2nd Amendment vs. a Serial Rapist,
Crime Spree Stopped with the Simple Presentation of a Firearm.

Failures of Gun Control:
UK Government under reports gun violence to pretend their policies work
Scotland holds a Summit on their Failed Gun Policies, Chicago's gun ban continues to fail
Real Women's Rights (This one includes one of my favorite personal accounts)
Opposition to CA AB 2062
Knife Control?!
Protecting Children through Gun Control?
Futility of the Gun Banning Philosophy
A Contrast to VA Tech

Thoughts just prior to the release of DC v. Heller, with one of the best appellate court quotations ever.

Thoughts on publicized shootings: Shootings early in 2009, Alabama Shootings, Finland School Shooting. Remember: The only proven method to mitigate the disaster of a rogue criminal shooter is to have more first responders, e.g. CCW permit holders lawfully armed and on scene. These criminals do not respect "gun free" zones, but simply view them as target-rich opposition-free areas in which to slaughter innocents.

CCW Holders are an especially lawful group.

Carrying a firearm is an inherently civilized act.

Right to Carry Statistics.

Does Violence Beget Violence?

Bernie Sanders is all done lying about being poor

Governments always trend toward creating a rich, privileged political class. Call them royalty, a politburo, or whatever you like.  It's what they do.  The sick part is that instead of doing this through hard work and innovation like most of us theoretically could do in the U.S., they do it by robbing you at gunpoint, using the IRS as their thug.  While we all agree that some taxes are necessary to fund basic, agreed upon government functions, they're doing a lot more with the money than was ever intended, including making themselves rich at your expense.

It shouldn't be a shock that "man of the people" Bernie Sanders, now off the campaign trail is the same way.  The story that sparked this thought is "Sen. Bernie Sanders buys lakefront home for nearly $600,000."  Snopes tried to defend him a bit, but here's the truth:  most Americans can't afford a vacation home at all, let alone one worth $600,000.  And Bernie, that home would have paid for a lot of students' "free" tuition.

What's the truth about socialism and socialists?  It's the same as it's always been since government was invented.

While I don't believe government is inherently bad, I do believe that the farther we stray from the Constitution, which was designed to keep government and politicians from abusing We the People, the worse things will continue to get.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Redistribution of Wealth

There I was, watching New Girl like a real man, when the episode turned into an advertisement for Hillary Clinton.  In one scene, Zooey Deschanel's character explained redistribution of wealth using alcohol for some sorority women.  It hit me in that moment how much I despise this leftist drivel.

The left argues redistribution of wealth is all about fairness, but it's not only not fair, but also bad for us as people.  The liberal view is, "Someone has more, someone has less, so we take from the person who has more and give it to the person who has less."  This is fair if you are 4 years old.

Money represents the time and effort we've spent working to acquire it.  The wealth we accumulate represents hard work and sometimes great ideas that can make a lot of money.  The person who has these great ideas and puts in the hard work may get very wealthy.  She will have more than those who do not work as hard or come up with great ideas, and that more represents the effort put into that pursuit.

How is it fair, to take that hard-earned wealth and give it to someone who has chosen a different pursuit.  Let's use an egregious example, because it so perfectly highlights the unfairness:
It was during an investigation into the record number of food stamp recipients that Fox News’ John Roberts met Jason Greenslate, a surfer and rocker who is living the self-described “rat life” in California.

The 29-year-old signed up for SNAP and receives $200 dollars a month in taxpayer money for food. He put it simply, “I don’t got a paycheck coming in, so I qualify.”

Jason Greenslate who wants to spend his time surfing, is actually taking money from California single mother and CEO Melissa Kieling to buy his lobster and sushi.  Here's Melissa's story for the interested.  She was poor.  She worked hard on a good idea.  Now she's not poor, and she deserves every last penny she's earned through her effort.  Jason doesn't deserve one freaking penny of it.  Not one.

Jason doesn't deserve one freaking penny of Zooey Deschanel's hard-earned cash.  Jason should get a job.

So the liberal idea of fairness isn't actually fair, it's disgustingly unfair and enables lazy people to be lazy.  That hurts society, but it gets worse.

There are people who are working hard and still need assistance.  The government, which in most cases keeps 60% of everything it takes, is the worst way to help anyone.  Not only does it skim a huge share of the tax "revenue" to support the new royal class, but then it does a poor job of getting the money to those who actually deserve it.  Worse yet, charitable acts ennoble the giver and the receiver.  Paying taxes ennobles no one.  The chance for wealthy or middle income people to directly assist friends and neighbors is instead taken by the government which keeps the majority, and then distributed so indiscriminately they may as well throw truckloads of money from an overpass at underprivileged neighborhoods.

This isn't a good or fair system.  The government shouldn't be in the business of wealth redistribution, and our system needs to change.