Tuesday, June 2, 2009

The Obama Lie: "Create or Save Jobs"

One of the ridiculous things coming out of the Obama administration is that the stimulus plan will "create or save" many many jobs. We've been shedding 500-600k jobs every month for serveral months now. Meanwhile, news stories are claiming that in 100 days we've "created or saved 150k jobs." The only problem is that there's no way anyone could know what has been saved (at least someone in the media is noticing that):

There is only one necessary data point to make the "jobs-saved" claim: an accurate measure of expected employment levels in the future. That baseline data is critical to measure what the employment level would be in the absence of the stimulus. Unfortunately for the White House, they cannot possibly know that measurement within any degree of confidence -- and they know it.

To understand just how unknowable this data point is, it's not necessary to be an economist, a mathematician or a statistician.

You only need to know this: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - thousands of the most professional and rigorous counters and analyzers of labor data in the history of mankind - makes TWO revisions of employment data for their ESTIMATE of the PREVIOUS month! And even then the reports are mere estimates - an annual benchmark survey is required to reset the nation's payroll baseline.

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