Thursday, November 24, 2016

Why #Calexit will never happen

After a lot of protesting and an online movement, supporters of California seceding from the U.S. have begun the political process by filing a proposed ballot measure.  This first one would strip the California Constitution of language that makes California an integral part of the United States of America.  A referendum on actual secession would follow in time.
 
As an aside, this picture makes me laugh. 
The fellow has had no political science education.
"State" actually means an independent country with
its own borders, government, etc., which is what the
States originally were.  They're now more accurately
described as provinces.

California will never secede and I'll explain why, but first let's talk about the selfishness of this move.  If California were able to leave the union, the U.S. would become a one party country.  No Democrat would hold the Presidency again in the near future.  While some people would cheer this development, one party political states aren't healthy.  The California Left doesn't care what happens to the rest of the liberals in the country, though.  They only care about themselves.  This is the real ethos of socialists.  They claim all they do is for the greater good, but it really comes down to self-indulgence at the expense of others, so it's no shock that California liberals don't care what happens to their brothers and sisters in the rest of the nation.

While much of the US would be fine with CA splitting off, it won't happen for several reasons.


1.  We aren't capable of financial independence.

California has a massive economy, the 6th largest in the world, and we also have a massive spending problem.  Our unfunded pension liability will at some point require a federal bail out.  The political elite in California know this and that we rely heavily on federal funding because we spend far more than we take in.  While the U.S. also deficit spends, California has done it for years with the expectation that at some point in the future the rest of the union would help pay for our fiscal mismanagement.  So, the political elite won't let the secession process go very far.

2.  Most voters won't approve secession

California voters often approve some fairly far left propositions, but they often balk at really radical things.  Nearly half the State is conservative, and many of the liberals are moderate, not extremists.  For examples, look at this past election's results.  We extended income tax on the wealthy and repealed the bilingual education ban, but we did not repeal the death penalty or limit drug prices.  We also made a fast lane for death penalty cases.  Yes, the State has a majority of liberals, but many of them aren't ready to get really radical.

3.  Secession would fracture California

I mentioned before that nearly half of California is conservative.  Here's a map of California's political geography:


Geographically speaking, most of California is conservative.  Parts of California already want to split off and form their own state, the State of Jefferson, dedicated to more libertarian and conservative ideas.  If California liberals managed a secession, these counties would simply secede from California and return to the Union as smaller states.

4.  That whole water thing

Much of the liberal territory of California relies on water from other parts of the US and from conservative areas of California.  Secession would mean no more free water, and the potential for a complete shut off of water from the foreign nations that would surround the new Liberal Coastline Polity.  Farmers in the central region would rejoice and grow crops happily while San Francisco and Los Angeles shrunk in size or instituted draconian water rationing schemes and penalties, which are nothing new in California.

5.  The U.S. wouldn't permit secession

Leaving all the peaceful reasons California can't secede behind, we'll now focus on the use of force.  I mentioned above that California is the 6th largest economy in the world.  In addition, we grow a sizeable portion of many important crops in the U.S.  From Slate:
California produces a sizable majority of many American fruits, vegetables, and nuts: 99 percent of artichokes, 99 percent of walnuts, 97 percent of kiwis, 97 percent of plums, 95 percent of celery, 95 percent of garlic, 89 percent of cauliflower, 71 percent of spinach, and 69 percent of carrots (and the list goes on and on). Some of this is due to climate and soil. No other state, or even a combination of states, can match California’s output per acre.
Source here.

The economy and agriculture make California too valuable to give up.  Secession from the U.S. was tried in 1861, and it didn't go so well for the secessionists.  A modern attempt would be no different.  Much of the military is Republican/conservative, though it's not the monolith many people think it is.  If California tried to secede, the federal government would assume control of the California national guard and send in the rest of the active duty military.

6.  Many Californians would throw in with federal forces

Remember how much of California is conservative or libertarian?  We'd assist the military in quashing the liberal secession.  Oh, by the way, we're the ones who practice with firearms and are completely sick of being marginalized by the Left in this state.  The proposition system has left us with a clear understanding of what John Adams and later Alexis de Tocqueville meant by the tyranny of the majority.  We'd fight to get back the rights the Left has been stripping from us for years.  Military action succeeds best with intelligence and support from locals.  We've seen your yard signs, your facebook and twitter posts.  We'll defend to the death your right to say what you like, but if you get violent, we'll be happy to direct the military your way, loan them some ammo (we still have a bit, despite prop 63) and even assist as needed.

In conclusion, the California secessionist is a group of self-centered, whiny liberals who didn't get their way in this election.  As a fellow who never gets his way in any election, I sympathize to an extent, but also think they're being a bunch of unrealistic drama queens.  #Calexit will never happen.  Trying it would be unwise and potentially very costly for all liberals.

For a more explicit message to the Left from an American infantryman, have a fun but profanity-laced read here:  A Message to the Angry Leftists from an American Infantryman

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